Original Research
Health Workforce Planning
Requirement and Supply Projection of Selected Medical Specialists in Thailand in 2021
Last reviewed: March 2026
Key Findings
- Thailand employed workforce projection models to forecast requirements for medical specialists through 2021, addressing a critical gap in health human resource planning.
- The stock and flow model was utilised, accounting for current physician supply, annual production from medical schools, and losses through retirement, death, and career changes.
- Thailand’s physician supply has experienced steady expansion with an estimated annual loss rate of approximately 1%.
- The projections aimed to assess whether Thailand would meet targets of one physician per 1,500–1,800 population as set by national health policy.
Background
Health workforce planning represents one of the most critical challenges facing healthcare systems worldwide. The ability to accurately project the future requirement and supply of medical specialists is essential for ensuring that populations have adequate access to specialised care. In Southeast Asia, where healthcare systems are undergoing rapid transformation amid demographic and epidemiological transitions, evidence-based workforce planning has become increasingly important.
Thailand, as one of the more advanced healthcare systems in the ASEAN region, has been at the forefront of medical workforce projection methodologies. The country’s experience offers valuable lessons for neighbouring nations, including Malaysia, that face similar challenges in balancing specialist supply with population health needs. This article, published in the Malaysian Journal of Public Health Medicine, examines Thailand’s approach to projecting medical specialist requirements and supply.
Methodology: The Stock and Flow Model
The research employed a stock and flow model to project the supply of medical specialists. This approach requires three fundamental data inputs: accurate counts of the existing pool of practising physicians (the stock), the annual number of newly licensed physicians entering the workforce from both domestic and international medical schools (the inflow), and losses from the profession through death, retirement, or departure from clinical practice (the outflow).
The projection model accounts for the fact that physicians may leave clinical practice for various reasons, including transition to administrative roles, research positions, or entirely different careers. Age-specific loss rates were incorporated into the model, with expert consultation used to estimate these rates. For physicians aged 25 to 59, the estimated annual loss rate was approximately 0.15% to 0.6%, averaging 0.45%. The overall annual loss rate across all physician age groups was estimated at approximately 1%.
Future production capacity was estimated based on medical school admission plans and expected graduation rates. Data from the Medical Council of Thailand and the Human Resources for Health Research and Development Office provided the foundation for supply projections.
Thailand’s Medical Workforce Context
Thailand’s healthcare system is characterised by near-universal health coverage, with approximately 99.84% of the population covered by some form of health insurance. The health service delivery system operates across three tiers: primary care facilities (health centres and clinics without beds), secondary care facilities (community hospitals), and tertiary care facilities (provincial and regional hospitals with advanced specialist services).
A general practitioner in Thailand completes six years of medical education, while medical specialists undergo an additional two to six years of specialised training. The distribution of medical specialists across these service tiers, and between urban and rural settings, represents a persistent planning challenge. Research on a large private hospital network in Thailand found that the top five medical specialties by number were internal medicine (19.78%), paediatrics (11.60%), orthopaedic surgery (9.04%), obstetrics and gynaecology (8.85%), and general surgery (8.16%).
Projection Results and Policy Targets
The 7th National Conference on Medical Education in 2001 proposed a target of one physician per 1,500 population, while the Ministry of Public Health had set a more conservative target of one per 1,800 population in 2004. The workforce projections assessed when, and whether, Thailand’s physician supply would meet these respective targets.
The projections indicated a trajectory of continued physician supply growth, with the total number of active clinical physicians expected to rise steadily over the projection period. Complementary research using health demand methods projected that while the supply of most health professionals would likely be sufficient by 2026, nurses would face critical shortages. This finding highlighted the importance of profession-specific workforce planning rather than aggregate health workforce targets.
| Component | Description |
|---|---|
| Projection model | Stock and flow (cohort approach) |
| Annual physician loss rate | ~1% overall |
| Policy target (2001) | 1 physician per 1,500 population |
| Policy target (2004) | 1 physician per 1,800 population |
| Health coverage rate | 99.84% of population insured |
| Key challenge identified | Nursing shortage; specialist maldistribution |
Relevance for Malaysia and the ASEAN Region
The publication of this Thai workforce planning research in MJPHM reflects the cross-national relevance of health workforce issues within the ASEAN region. Malaysia faces its own medical workforce planning challenges, including the distribution of specialists between urban and rural areas, the balance between public and private sector employment, and the challenge of retaining medical talent domestically. Thailand’s modelling methodology and lessons learned offer a useful comparative framework for Malaysian health planners.
Both countries share common challenges, including the need to expand primary care capacity while ensuring adequate specialist referral services, the management of brain drain to higher-income countries, and the adaptation of workforce plans to account for changing disease burdens—particularly the rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases that require long-term specialist management.
Limitations
Workforce projection models are inherently dependent on the accuracy of their input assumptions. Changes in medical school admission policies, unexpected shifts in physician career patterns, or alterations in healthcare demand due to epidemics or policy reforms can render projections less reliable. The use of expert opinion for loss rate estimation introduces a degree of subjectivity. Additionally, projections focused on physician numbers alone do not capture the complexity of workforce distribution across specialties, geographic regions, and public-private sectors.
Requirement and Supply Projection of Selected Medical Specialists in Thailand in 2021. Malaysian Journal of Public Health Medicine. 2017;17(2).
License: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0)