Home 2017 - Volume 17 (2) REQUIREMENT AND SUPPLY PROJECTION OF SELECTED MEDICAL SPECIALISTS IN THAILAND IN 2021
REQUIREMENT AND SUPPLY PROJECTION OF SELECTED MEDICAL SPECIALISTS IN THAILAND IN 2021 PDF Print E-mail
Sunday, 30 July 2017 11:46

Pudtan Phanthunane1*, Supasit Pannarunothai2 and Nonglak Pagaiya3

1Faculty of Business, Economics and Communications, Naresuan University, Phitsanulok, Thailand

2Centre for Health Equity Monitoring Foundation, Phitsanulok, Thailand

3Sirindhorn College of Public Health, KhonKaen, Thailand

*corresponding author:

Pudtan Phanthunane

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ABSTRACT

There is a substantial shortage of human resource for health in both developed and developing countries.The aims of this study are to estimate demand for medical specialists in the universal health coverage in Thailand in 2009 and to compare projected demand and supply of medical specialists in 2021.The concept of linking health workforce requirements, supply projections using working lifespan strategies, suggested by the World Health Organization (WHO) was employed in this study.Aggregated outpatient visit data from the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) and individual inpatient hospitalizations from the National Health Security Office and the Comptroller General Department by diagnosis related groups(DRG) were used for estimating requirement for 9 medical specialists. Supply side data from the Thai Medical Council on existing and future production of these specialists were compared. Population growth and aging indicate a huge increase in requirement for medical specialists by 2021. Considering the existing scale of production of medical specialists, a severe shortage of medical internists is on top of the priority list (lacking 4,045 full time equivalent, or FTE). Except for obstetrician and gynaecological services, requirement for surgical specialists will increase greatly due to an aging population (e.g. neurosurgeons by 200 and surgeons by 800 FTE). The royal colleges of medical specialists need to review the demand for and the training capacity of these specialists. The Medical Council of Thailand should pay high attention on future shortages of internists and surgeons. The coordination between the medical schools, the Royal colleges, the Medical Council of Thailand and the MoPHis an urgent need.

Keywords: Human resources for health, demand and supply projection, medical specialists, demand-based approach, physician requirement, Thailand

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Last Updated on Monday, 28 August 2017 09:07